What will happen because of Putin's sudden death in Russia?

International Desk: It is possible to make two predictions about Russian President Vladimir Putin. First, he will be re-elected as president in Russia's ongoing elections. Second, he will die one day. However, Putin is unlikely to retire voluntarily. Rather, his death may mark the end of the Putin chapter in Russia. But no one knows when that day will come. That's why the world may have to wait to see the power struggle that begins after Putin's death.

Since taking responsibility as president in 2000, Putin began to use all means of electoral fraud to ensure his victory. Methods such as vote buying, counting rigging, ballot box rigging, voter monitoring and intimidation are used by Putin's agents to sway the election results in their favor.

Putin jails his political opponents. and exiled others. Putin is believed to have had a hand in the assassination of opposition figures such as Boris Nemtsov and the recent death of Alexei Navalny in prison.

What will happen if Putin leaves power?

When Putin leaves power, his successor will naturally come. But as long as the Russian president lives, his personal authority and influence will be a threat to that successor. Both Putin and his successor know this.

Most dictators do not name their successors publicly. Because, before their retirement or death, a bitter power struggle may begin over the matter. Likewise, if Putin chooses his successor, that person will immediately become a target for others.

There are also bitter rivalries among Putin's domestic allies. However, Putin tries to keep these under control with various strategies.

However, the 2023 rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner's forces, against the Russian Ministry of Defense showed just how fierce these contests can be. Prigogine was killed in a plane crash in August 2023, the cause of which may never be known. However, it is suspected that Putin has a hand in this incident.

Regulation of Traders

Putin is unlikely to be removed by a coup. Because Putin has direct control over Russia's security forces. Putin has been closely monitoring potential threats, both internal and external, to his rule, and his regime has proven largely invulnerable.

In addition, anti-Western attitudes and practices of Russian nationalism have helped Putin gain the loyalty of the military and civilians.

Putin uses his control over Russia's natural resources to keep his oligarchs (Russian billionaires) loyal. Putin himself decides which oligarchs are appointed to lead the state-owned oil, gas, minerals and industrial producers. As long as they remain loyal to Putin and support his political and economic dictates, the oligarchs have no chance of income.

The oligarchs' wealth and freedom are tied to Putin's favor. They stand to lose everything if they cross Putin. Tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky was jailed in 2003 after criticizing Putin and saw his company Yukos seized by the state. That is, Russian elites have nothing to gain or lose by withdrawing from Putin's coalition.

What will happen after Putin's death?

According to Russia's constitution, the country's prime minister automatically becomes acting president if the president resigns or dies. It was Putin's first move to become president after the resignation of Boris Yeltsin in 2000.

The current Prime Minister of Russia, Mikhail Mishustin, is known as a flexible person. This former tax official does not have a strong foundation himself. Even if he succeeds Putin as acting president, it is certain that he will not be able to hold on to power until the end.

According to the Russian constitution, new presidential elections must be held within 3 months of the death or incapacity of the president. But the real battle for power in Russia will be behind the scenes, not at the ballot box.

A potential power struggle may be resolved before the elections. But 3 months is not enough time for a ruler to consolidate the power left by Putin. This is only possible when the candidates are able to compete for real votes, which should be practiced over several years. Or, an informal coalition would attempt to govern the country collectively by sharing key positions such as president, prime minister and security forces. This kind of power-sharing has historical precedents in Russia. After the deaths of both Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin, coalitions declaring 'collective leadership' came to power in Russia.

But the days, months and years after Putin's death could produce more instability than expected. There is no alternative to Putin as the single strongest ruler since Soviet times. Led single-handedly and with little institutional support, the revolutionary changes that Putin has brought about in Russia are as successful as Roman history.